This came up in conversation today. It is one of the subjects about which I try to remain as informed as possible. In this particular case I am more well informed than an average researcher because I am one of a group of obscure people who write about obscure subjects....in obscurity.
This is a public assessment, not written by us. It is for public consumption and is not, in my opinion, necessarily informative.
http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/irans-gas-centrifuge-program-taking-stock/
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This came up in conversation as well. Iran's non-aircraft nuclear delivery platforms are not yet sufficiently tested to be reliable although even civilian GPS and INS navigation systems are sufficiently accurate enough to put an unmanned (or manned) aircraft carrying a nuke exactly onto a target. Pakistan uses Chinese delivery platforms and became a nuclear power with China's direct assistance. Paki satellites are launched from China. America has lost a couple dozen or so Predator drones in Pakistan and Afghanistan and they have been duplicated by China which has tested and deployed countermeasures systems against them. That is why the 'new' generation of UAV attack drones are controlled by very close satellite links. That system has also been compromised.
I, as an individual, and from no source of intelligence but my own mind, estimate that as of today Israel has between 300 and 400 nuclear devices on, or within two minutes of installation on, tested delivery platforms. Iran has possibly 60 devices, about the same number as Pakistan and probably a few more than India.
Israel cannot strike Natanz without drawing a retaliatory strike against Dimona and, probably, every Israeli city along the Mediterranean sea. So, as a deterrent, Israel has at least five modern submarines (Thyssen Krupp Marine U209-type) which are fully equipped with nuclear-tipped, sea-launched cruise missile systems in addition to a missile and aircraft delivery capability. I can only suppose, but it is clear that every Muslim country would gladly take any number of casualties if they could destroy Israel in the process. Thus it seems likely to me that the Israeli threat must be that, if attacked, they would take out the entire oil production capability of the middle east in addition to all of the Muslim population centers, the Suez canal and the ports along the Persian Gulf regardless of where the attack originated.
To toss fuel on the fire, Iran has Russian Kilo-class submarines and, as of December, Vietnam ordered six of them as well as 12 more SU-30s. Vietnam is going to be a military nuclear power by 2020 unless China stops them.
As of last week, Russia declared that a preemptive nuclear strike was again part of their military strategy. Since it always has been, that is not a change, merely a warning to Eastern Europe not to allow American offensive missiles to be deployed in those countries as is now planned.
"The true danger is when liberty is nibbled away, for expedients, and by parts... the only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing." -~Edmund Burke
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http://oathkeepers.org/oath/2009/03/03/declaration-of-orders-we-will-not-obey/
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