Why the Gulf disaster cannot be repaired.

I have experience with turbulence in hydraulic systems and I have experience with terrestrial and underwater volcanoes among other things.  But I have a large group of friends who do and I am the process of writing a book with Pat Takahashi, 'The Venus Syndrome'.  The first chapters read like the blueprint of the BP disaster except my oil rig doesn't explode; the clathrates warm enough to revert to a gaseous state, rise to the surface from a leak, and suffocate the rig workers.  After that, we start to see VERY similar events.  I have been researching this very thing for well over a year and, while I am not a petroleum expert, neither am I a neophyte.  I am not simply tossing out guesses.

From my experience with turbulence, it is very easy to understand what has happened to the bore.  The pipe was never centered properly in the bore; the bore diameter decreases with depth, and connection to a new piece of core pipe is a weak spot.

Turbulence is not preventable.  As some oil and methane began leaking past the bad seal, the velocity and associated turbulence began eroding the sides of the borehole OUTSIDE of the pipe. The particulate matter torn from the sides simply sandblasts more rock releasing more oil and methane under more and more pressure.

As the borehole becomes uneven, more turbulence is generated and the pipe begins to be whipped around in the borehole instead of lining it tightly. Every pipe junction will fail within hours or even minutes of being slammed in that manner. At this point, there is nothing for the relief wells to connect to except a large diameter hole with no pipe in it, and so they are useless. Relief well efficacy is specific to a particular situation. This isn't it. A relief drilled concurrently to the main well bore might have helped IF ALL OF THE CORRECT PRECAUTIONS HAD BEEN FOLLOWED, but it wasn't required and safety was tossed to the wind in exchange for potential profit.

So, no. No technology exists to reverse the effects of unbridled greed. We are already on the cusp of yet another of history's well-established major extinction events. Whether anyone chooses to believe it doesn't concern me. Whether the people who recognize it believe it is natural or Anthropogenic doesn't matter. What matters is that we are so close that ANY anomaly has the potential for causing the effect to run away. We are so close that this may eventually require a choice between using biofuel crops for fuel or food. If we use them for food, how does it get to market? If we use them for fuel, what do people eat?

I am always available to debate. http://drtom.posterous.com

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