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Much ado is being made of the reports contrasting the F-Daiichi is releasing 154 teraBecquerels of radionuclide particulate matter a day to Chernobyl.  Almost all of the reports repeat the statement that Fukushima has (so-far) released only about 10~ of the radiation Chernobyl released.  No problem.  Well, it COULD have been worse.

IT WILL BE!

No one seems to grasp that Chernobyl is over and Fukushima isn't.  Chernobyl released a huge radioactive cloud when it blew up.  Fukishima is smoldering along.  It will exceed the Chernobyl release in a year IF NOTHING ELSE HAPPENS.  In addition, Chernobyl didn't dump radioactive water into the world's primary fishing waters.  Fukushima will have to do BOTH of those things for many years just to PREVENT a Chernobyl-type accident - So Fukushima will be many times worse than Chernobyl and will continue for, possibly, hundreds of years.

I was asked yesterday how soon someone could go back to the area of Fukushima Daiichi, buy land, build a house and do a little farming and fishing.  20,000 years.

Next:  I have information from Yoichi 'boots on the ground' that smoke was being emitted from the Kashiwazaki last week after the MAG 7,1 EQ. which occurred off Honshu on 7 APR 2011.  I have further information that in addition to Fukushima Daiichi, the nuclear plants at Onagawa, Fukushima Daini, Tokai and now Kashiwazaki, were ALL damaged by the MAG 9.0 EQ of March 11 and are in shut-down status. 

TEPCO's leaked plans to re-start the three reactors at Kashiwazaki which were damaged in a 2007 earthquake and have been off-line since AND their idea of restarting Fukushima Daiichi reactors #5 and #6 means there is a problem somewhere and the remaining plants can't take up the slack.  So you immediately know that every other nuclear plant on Honshu is humming away at 110% power - prefectly primed to self-destruct when the next megaquake hits.

As of March 23, neutron beams have been reported at least thirteen times at Fukushima Daiichi.  The Japanese government states that these are not the result of criticality accidents and then go right on to state that limited fission may be occurring.

Do tell!  If a neutron beam is observed at Fukushima, it is from a fission excursion.  You can call it  'limited fission', 'not a criticality accident', 'bubbles in the bathtub' or any other name you like but nuclear criticality is the only thing that produces a neutron beam.  They are probably leaving the isle of denial and coming to the belated realization that they can't stop it.  Remember that 6 to 9 month plan for 'repair'?  You won't hear that anymore.  Do you remember the idea of constructing a huge, steel tank to hold radioactive water?   They will fill it up and wait for the next earthquake to breach it?  Huge, steel water tanks do not survive MAG 6.9 earthquakes.  I'll bet that plan is shelved as well.

Furthermore, it is now becoming more likely that a small Chernobyl-type explosion DID occur at Fukushima Daiichi reactor #3.  I have to write the name out instead of abbreviating it because there also seem to be problems at :

Onagawa reactor #3
Fukushima Daini reactor #3
Tokai Reactor #3
Kashiwazaki reactor #3

The evacuation zones are not going to be reduced at all -  they are being expanded. At the moment it looks like they are slowly connecting the dots between Fukushima Daiichi and Onagawa.  

"The wording on the upcoming evacuation sounds eerily like expectation of another larger blast/meltdown."

I'd like to read that.  I haven't seen it yet. Maybe someone finally started reading my assessments.  In case the haven't, let me recap.  Once the fuel tubes rupture and the fuel pellets begin to fission and melt together, it doesn't matter whether ALL of them do or not - just yet.  The ones which are will continue.  The ones which haven't YET are not yet are merely waiting for the water to be turned off.  The situation is that SOME amount of fissile material is fissioning and continues to fission.  It is in an overfilled container of boiling water which doesn't cover it - so it is, in effect, a nuclear cauldron.  If they pump out the boiling water, the core will probably explode.  If they don't, the next earthquake will breach it and THEN it will explode.  They cannot get at the core.  It is  radioactive and will melt robots and cameras.  It is protected in a hardened concrete caisson designed to protect it from bombs and airplane strikes -but the bottom is cracked so the bad stuff can wash out.  And it is generating deadly radiation.

MULTIPLY THAT FOUR OR FIVE OR SIX TIMES.  Welcome to Honshu. 

About the only viable plan left is to run away.  Or invent a scenario in which all of the remaining fuel is vaporized at once.  It can be done, but it would create a worldwide extinction event.

T

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