Fallout: The Legacy of Chernobyl (BBC Radio 4, 26 April 2011 20.00 - 20.40) You can listen again here .
This programme expressed the IAEA / WHO view that there has been no observable impact on health except for thyroid cancers caused by a failure to distribute stable iodine, and a few deaths and illness among highly irradiated firemen.
Professor Geraldine Thomas is heard saying:
When we have analysed the programme in more detail we will issue further briefings.
Complaints should be lodged with the BBC within 30 days of transmission. In our opinion the grounds for complaint are that the programme failed to meet BBC editorial standards on impartiality. See how to complain here
The 2006 BBC tv documentary Nuclear Nightmares treated Chernobyl in the same way as this new programme. LLRC took a complaint against Nuclear Nightmares through all the formal stages, ending with an appeal to the BBC Trust. The Trust ruled that the programme was biased and warned all departments
European Committee on Radiation Risk estimates Chernobyl's cancers will total 1,400,000 in 50 years
On the 25th anniversary of the Chernobyl catastrophe ECRR (European Committee on Radiation Risk) published calculations of cancer resulting from the fallout .
As with its forecasts for cancer in Japan after Fukushima , the Committee has used two separate methods: the "Tondel" method and the "ECRR Absolute" method.
The "Tondel" Method is based on a conservative study by Martin Tondel which examined cancer incidence in northern Sweden during 10 years after Chernobyl. Tondel differentiated the varying levels of land contamination and found that the disease increased by 11% for each 100 kiloBecquerels of fallout per square metre of land surface.
The "ECRR Absolute" method employs weighting factors developed by the ECRR to correct for the inadequacy of "absorbed dose" quantities on which the ICRP risk estimates are based. The ECRR weightings take account of the different ways in which different radionuclides behave in biological systems. See ECRR Recommendations (a free download) for detail.
ECRR has applied these methods to UNSCEAR and UNESCO data for fallout in 39 countries with a combined population of 2,342 million people.
The "Tondel" Method forecasts approximately 492,000 incident cancers in the 10 years following exposure over and above the numbers expected in the absence of radioactive fallout. The "ECRR Absolute" method forecasts 1.4 million additional cancer cases in the 50 years to 2036.
There is good agreement between these results obtained by the two methods. The yield of about 1.4 million cancers worldwide also agrees quite well with the calculations of John Gofman, Rosalie Bertell, and Alexey Yablokov.
It should be noted that the ECRR method was developed in 2003, before Tondel et al published the results of their study of cancer in Sweden. The ECRR 2003 method predicted what they found with a fair degree of accuracy.
It should also be noted that the Caesium contamination levels associated with the Tondel findings give annual external doses of about 3mSv (according to ICRP methodology). This is roughly the same as natural background and should not have caused any observable increase in cancer, according to the ICRP model.
This programme expressed the IAEA / WHO view that there has been no observable impact on health except for thyroid cancers caused by a failure to distribute stable iodine, and a few deaths and illness among highly irradiated firemen.
Professor Geraldine Thomas is heard saying:
The fact that there has been cancer incidence in Belarus subsequent to the accident is not surprising because there is cancer incidence in this country (UK) and we weren't exposed to the radiation from Chernobyl.BBC programming has featured Professor Thomas many times since the Fukushima disaster. She speaks as an expert on radiation and health but she seems not to know that after Chernobyl the average land contamination in the United Kingdom was 1,400 Becquerels per square metre radioactive Caesium 137 (data from UNESCO and UNSCEAR). Some 300 farms are still subject to restrictions on the sale of livestock.
When we have analysed the programme in more detail we will issue further briefings.
Complaints should be lodged with the BBC within 30 days of transmission. In our opinion the grounds for complaint are that the programme failed to meet BBC editorial standards on impartiality. See how to complain here
The 2006 BBC tv documentary Nuclear Nightmares treated Chernobyl in the same way as this new programme. LLRC took a complaint against Nuclear Nightmares through all the formal stages, ending with an appeal to the BBC Trust. The Trust ruled that the programme was biased and warned all departments
In making this decision the Committee believed it was important to remind all programme areas that they had the same responsibility as news programmes to ensure impartiality – particularly when dealing with a controversial subject. It was, therefore, important for a programme to provide appropriate and proportionate opportunity to reflect those other views.Fallout: The Legacy of Chernobyl makes it clear that the warning has been ignored.
European Committee on Radiation Risk estimates Chernobyl's cancers will total 1,400,000 in 50 years
On the 25th anniversary of the Chernobyl catastrophe ECRR (European Committee on Radiation Risk) published calculations of cancer resulting from the fallout
As with its forecasts for cancer in Japan after Fukushima
The "Tondel" Method is based on a conservative study by Martin Tondel which examined cancer incidence in northern Sweden during 10 years after Chernobyl. Tondel differentiated the varying levels of land contamination and found that the disease increased by 11% for each 100 kiloBecquerels of fallout per square metre of land surface.
The "ECRR Absolute" method employs weighting factors developed by the ECRR to correct for the inadequacy of "absorbed dose" quantities on which the ICRP risk estimates are based. The ECRR weightings take account of the different ways in which different radionuclides behave in biological systems. See ECRR Recommendations
ECRR has applied these methods to UNSCEAR and UNESCO data for fallout in 39 countries with a combined population of 2,342 million people.
The "Tondel" Method forecasts approximately 492,000 incident cancers in the 10 years following exposure over and above the numbers expected in the absence of radioactive fallout. The "ECRR Absolute" method forecasts 1.4 million additional cancer cases in the 50 years to 2036.
There is good agreement between these results obtained by the two methods. The yield of about 1.4 million cancers worldwide also agrees quite well with the calculations of John Gofman, Rosalie Bertell, and Alexey Yablokov.
It should be noted that the ECRR method was developed in 2003, before Tondel et al published the results of their study of cancer in Sweden. The ECRR 2003 method predicted what they found with a fair degree of accuracy.
It should also be noted that the Caesium contamination levels associated with the Tondel findings give annual external doses of about 3mSv (according to ICRP methodology). This is roughly the same as natural background and should not have caused any observable increase in cancer, according to the ICRP model.
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