Here's what it looks like to me.

H/T Joseppi

Model on food prices and social unrest predicts crisis in 2013

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/03/food-crisis-2013.html

Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism Model of Domestic Political Violence Forecast

Forecasting Increases in Political Violence: 2011-2015

http://radicalism.milcord.com/blog/